OFF TOPIC: Analysis of the January 2023 employment report

This subject was repeatedly discussed in my old ECONOMIC LOGIC blog, which stopped publication on January 24, 2023. The most popular articles will continue here, as OFF TOPIC articles, Including the ECONOMIC LOGIC STOCK MARKET TIMING INDIVCATORS, that I have tracked monthly since 1977.

Employment data in 2022 could not be trusted. The two surveys -- Household Survey and Establishment Survey -- were further apart than at any time in history.  I have followed these data for my former ECONOMIC LOGIC newsletter since 1977. The 2022 survey gap was unprecedented. Biden gets credit for that.

It would be easy to completely dismiss the numbers because employment is not a leading indicator, so it does not predict anything.  But people do read the job gains from the Establishment (aka Payroll) survey, and the unemployment rate from the Household Survey, in the mainstream media.

I can provide better numbers from the same government sources. Data that have not been over adjusted and tell a more accurate story. And I provide links to the data sources.

The 2022 problem was total employment gains for the year reported by two different surveys. They should be in the same ballpark, if the data collection was reliable. They were not. Two differences:

(1) Only the Household Survey includes self-employed

(2) A person with two jobs will be one employed person on the Household Survey, but two employed people on the Payroll Survey

2022 Employment Growth (December 2021 to December 2022)
Household Survey = +3,163,000 new jobs in 2022
Payroll Survey = +4,814,000 new jobs in 2022

Top Picks (Most Requested Statistics) : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (bls.gov)

For employment I present the Payroll Data before seasonal and other adjustments, January 2023 versus December 2022, with a comparison of January 2022 versus December 2021:

January 2023 raw data vs. December -2,505,000 fewer jobs

Adjusted number told to the public: +517,000 new jobs

Employment and Earnings Table B-1b (bls.gov)
January 2022 raw data vs. December -2,392,000 fewer jobs

Adjusted number told to the public: +364,000 New Jobs

Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail [In thousands] (bls.gov)

   Summary

In January 2023, an estimated loss of -2,505.000 jobs was reported to the public as a gain of +517,000 jobs

In January 2022, an estimated loss of -2,392,000 jobs was reported to the public as a gain of only +364,000 jobs. 

-- The months of January 2023 and January 2022 are inconsistent

(economics term: BS)

For the unemployment information, I present a labor participation chart showing the percentage of working age Americans working or actively seeking a job: