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Saturday, March 25, 2023

Saturday afternoon climate rap: We should be celebrating the current climate -- it doesn't get much better than this

The climate in 100 years will be warmer or cooler

No one knows the future today


The effect of CO2 can be measured in a laboratory with and without water vapor.


CO2 is a weak greenhouse gas above 400ppm ...


In the atmosphere, there are too mamy climate variables to know exactly what each one has done to the climate in the past 50 years.


Many people look at the change in average temperature for the past 80 years and just assume that was caused by CO2. That would be a worst case assumption, but not a realistic assumption.


No one knows the ECS (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity) for CO2, which would include an unknown water vapor positive feedback and something that limits that positive feedback, possibly a cloud negative feedback.


And the whole process takes 200 to 400 years, according to the IPCC. Anyone who claims to know ECS is just guessing.


The fact that the past eight years had the highest eight years of manmade CO2 emissions, with no global warming, proves that CO2 is just one of many climate change variables. Not a climate controller.


The most important climate science fact is that humans have been extremely unsuccessful in predicting the future climate. 


Even simple extrapolations have failed, such as assuming the past 30 to 50 years of climate change can be used to predict the next 30 to 50 years of climate change. 


In the past 125 years, that simple extrapolation prediction has been much less accurate than even the climate confuser games.


The bottom line:


Climate is always changing


The changes have not been predictable


The actual changes in the past 50 years have been pleasant.


There is no reason the assume changes in the next 50 years must be bad news.


There is no need to try to change the climate because it has been improving since the cold 1690s -- the coldest decade of the Maunder Minimum period -- why try to stop good news?


CO2 is so important for plant life on this planet that more CO2 in the air is what plants prefer -- at least double the current CO2 level.


We should be celebrating the current climate.


It is the best climate since the Holocene Climate Optimum ended 5,000 years ago. 


Better, from the point of view of C3 plants (85% of 300,000 species).


If we are almost as warm today as in the last Optimum period, that's a good thing. 


They didn't call it an Optimum because the climate was bad news.


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